The real reason why Liberal Democrat support is low

We all know that support for the Liberal Democrats remains low. It fell from the giddy heights of Cleggmania to a poll average of about 10% by the autumn of 2010 and has been stuck there ever since.

The question is ‘why’ rather than ‘what’, and simply answering with “the coalition” isn’t good enough.

People’s attachment to parties is a reflection of their values, and one organisation has analysed this in depth: Cultural Dynamics.

The remainder of this post won’t make much sense if you are unfamiliar with Cultural Dynamics’s methodology and its world ‘Settlers’, ‘Prospectors’ or ‘Pioneers’. If so, before you go any further, read this short description of the value modes and this map of value-based politics, then take this online test to discover where you fit, and all will become clear.

Cultural Dynamics has just published a state of the parties analysis, and the problem faced by the Liberal Democrats is stark. As you would expect, of the three main value modes (Settlers, Pioneers and Prospectors), Liberal Democrat support tends to be concentrated among ‘Pioneers’, people driven by individually-based ethics, with some some support among ‘Prospectors’:

Whatever their protestations about being ‘hated less than they were’, our 2012 data shows that the LibDems are in deep trouble.

Mid-2012 data shows their support beginning to concentrate in a small Pioneer rump. Late-2012 data shows an even more dramatic fall in Prospector Now People support, and a further retreat among Pioneers towards Concerned Ethical territory.

Concentration in only one area of the values map indicates that as far as identification with their values is concerned, the LibDems are now a fringe party.

I have long argued (here and here) that the fundamental problem of Liberal Democrat strategy has been a failure to consolidate a core vote, so that the party has no foundation for building outwards. Indeed, the party is hostile to the very idea that not all people are equally predisposed to vote Liberal Democrat (as evidenced by the fatuous slogan ‘We can win everywhere!’). The problem faced by the Liberal Democrats is therefore paradoxical: despite their obduracy, they still have a core vote but, because they refuse to recognise it, they don’t appreciate that they have alienated it or understand why. The Cultural Dynamics analysis continues:

It is hard to see the Liberal Democrats continuing as a significant national force on the basis of our data as they have offended their mainly Pioneer natural constituency so deeply. There are significant tensions within the party that may surface in the run up to 2015. A change of leader and of emphasis may help, but as long as they are in coalition with a Conservative government that is perceived as both incompetent and moving further to the ‘right’ they will not attract a significant Pioneer vote. Prospectors do not vote for ‘losers’ and the LibDem’s Settler penetration is insignificant.

The only way the Liberal Democrats can rebuild support is to accept that they have a natural constituency, understand what makes these people tick, consolidate this core vote and build out from it. Doing so is not contingent on leaving the coalition but it does depend on the party conducting itself within the coalition in a manner that builds rather than loses support.

The strategic priority for the Liberal Democrats is to work out how to win back the ‘Pioneer’ vote but there is no sign of this happening. Instead, we get that wizened old chestnut, the ‘centre ground’, and a reliance on empty slogans about a fairer society and a stronger economy. This suggests that there is not exactly an abundance of master strategists at work.

Immigration: proof that The Sun is talking bollocks

Yesterday’s edition of The Sun claimed that foreigners would outnumber native British people in London by 2031.

Well, whaddya know? It turns out that The Sun’s claim is complete and utter bollocks. Full Fact has checked the facts and discovered a dubious form of statistical methodology:

(Abuse of research + absurd extrapolations =) bollocks + malevolence + dishonesty = complete bollocks.

Complete bollocks + desire to make money by feeding prejudices = complete and utter bollocks.

Which social class of Liberal Democrat are you?

The BBC’s Great British Class Survey has received a lot of attention over the past few days. Instead of the traditional three categories of upper, middle and lower class, the survey claims that there are now seven distinct social classes of British people. You can take the test here to discover which of these new classes you belong to.

To make more sense of these seven new classes, the Guardian has helpfully defined them in terms of well-known sitcom characters.

In case these new classes still don’t make sense, Liberator has helpfully devised this test for members of the Liberal Democrats to help them see where they fit in the party’s social hierarchy:

The Great Liberator Class Survey

1. First thing each morning, you like to catch up with the news. Do you:

(a) Switch on Sky News
(b) Grab your iPhone and look at your friends’ tweets
(c) Listen to the Radio 4 ‘Today’ programme
(d) Read the Financial Times while being chauffeured to your office

2. Where do you live?

(a) In a council tower block with Lib Dem posters in the window
(b) In a flat-share with Lib Dem posters in the window
(c) In a suburban semi-detached with Lib Dem posters in the window
(d) Do you mean my home in London or my place in the country?

3. How do you like to relax?

(a) Watching Sky Sports
(b) Tweeting
(c) Relax? I’m too busy out campaigning
(d) Do you mean when I’m in London or at my place in the country?

4. Nick Clegg has just announced a controversial change of policy. Do you:

(a) Complain by phoning Radio 5 Live
(b) Complain by sending an angry tweet
(c) Complain by raising the issue under ‘any other business’ at your next local party executive meeting
(d) Express quiet satisfaction by making a large donation to Nick Clegg’s office

5. Your local party intends to submit a motion about wind farms to party conference. Do you:

(a) Worry that this policy would increase your fuel bills
(b) Worry that the motion doesn’t mention LGBT rights
(c) Worry that you haven’t got round to installing a windmill on your garden shed
(d) Worry that wind farms will spoil the view from your place in the country

6. You are about to go out canvassing but it can be hard on your feet. Do you wear:

(a) Trainers
(b) Whatever
(c) Sandals
(d) The green wellies you keep in the back of the Range Rover

7. Your local Focus team has been out delivering on a hot summer’s day. To keep them refreshed, do you stock up with:

(a) Tennent’s Extra
(b) J2O
(c) A polypin of real ale
(d) Cheap Spanish fizz (you wouldn’t want to waste the proper champagne on your local Focus team)

8. At the end of a hard day’s campaigning, do you and your local Focus team:

(a) Get a takeaway from the local kebab shop
(b) Go to an organic vegetarian café and spend all your time tweeting each other
(c) Dine at an Indian restaurant owned by one of your supporters (where everyone will eat the same things they always order)
(d) Tuck in to the Waitrose hamper that Ocadio delivered earlier in the day

Results

Based on your answers, Liberator’s dedicated team of social scientists has analysed which class of party member you belong to:

Mostly (a) – Working class political activist. Are you sure you still exist?
Mostly (b) – Like, whatever
Mostly (c) – Typical bloody Liberal
Mostly (d) – How much did you say a peerage costs?

Losing my religion?

The results of last year’s census in England and Wales have been released today and the Guardian is running a useful live blog analysing the results. (Scotland and Northern Ireland hold their own censuses; Northern Ireland’s results will be released later today, while Scotland’s are out next week).

It is no surprise that home ownership has fallen by 7% since the previous census in 2001, given the inflated house prices and financial crisis of the past decade. What is surprising is how drastic this fall has been in London, where home ownership has collapsed by almost 40%.

The most striking figure, though, is the fall in religious affiliation, despite the fact that the 2011 census biased the results by asking a loaded question (“What is your religion?”).

Compared with 2001, people describing themselves as Christians are down 13 percentage points from 72% to 59%. Meanwhile, respondents with no religion are up 10 points from 15% to 25%. But these figures need to be read in conjunction with the results for ethnicity. The ‘white British’ group now accounts for 80% of the population, compared with 87% in 2001. Given that other ethnic groups tend to be more religious than average, this probably means that the fall in religious belief is even greater among white British people.

The census’s understatement of the decline in religion is borne out by the 2009 British Social Attitudes survey, which showed that 50.7% of people in Great Britain have no religion. In any case, one wonders what most of the census respondents who ticked the box marked ‘Christian’ actually meant, since only 6% of the UK population regularly attends church.

No religion has suffered a greater fall than the Jedi Knights. In the 2001 census, a write-in campaign secured 0.7% declaring their religion as Jedi, a bigger proportion than those who cited Buddhism, Judaism and Sikhism. This time, the figure is only 0.31%. Thankfully, the remaining 176,632 Jedi Knights still comfortably outnumber the 1,893 people who declared themselves Satanists.

Jedis or not, this sharp decline in religion makes the government’s support for faith schools look even more ridiculous than before. Not that the facts are likely to bother Michael Gove.